On Tuesday, April 17th, 2018, at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) in Washington, DC, a panel of think tank experts and university faculty gathered for a conference titled China and North Korea: Past, Present, and Future. The conference is well timed. With North Korean leader Kim Jung-Un’s recent visit to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), a secret meeting with CIA Director Mike Pompeo, an upcoming meeting between US President Trump and President Kim, there are indications that the hermit kingdom’s is willing to consider de-nuclearization, there is a strong need to understand the points of view of all major stakeholders involved in this delicate situation.
One of the most compelling speakers, Dr. Heung-Kyu Kim, a director and professor of political science at Ajou University’s China Policy Institute in South Korea, provided attendees with a well-thought-out narrative of China’s perspective of the possible reunification of North and South Korea.
Dr. Kim’s Viewpoints can be summed up in the points below:
- China’s official position favors a peaceful and independent process of reunifying North and South Korea. China would prefers the process occur with minimal involvement from the United States. Assuming South Korean would absorb North Korea, the democratic country’s close ties to the United States would put the PRC on edge.
- Chinese President Xi Jinping has considered ways of balancing policy between the two. China supported recent sanctions against North Korea when it made significant waves in the international community while engaging South Korea in a more substantive fashion. A group of leading Chinese scholars, including Yan Xuetong and Wang Yiwei, believe the best move for the PRC would be to enter into a formalized alliance with South Korea, giving China more sway in the outcome of a reunification. Analyst Note: FAO Global Founder, Brandon Hughes, had the opportunity to study under Professor Yan Xuetong at Tsinghua University. This experience provided valuable insight into the Chinese strategy thought process.
- The PRC’s stated red lines on the Korean peninsula, issues that would lead them to intervene militarily, include a war over reunification and a forced North Korean regime change. Dr. Kim believes, in reality, they are much more flexible than they claim to be and will take the best deal they can get. He believes that US involvement in the process would be a sticking point for the Chinese government. Analyst Note: Beijing has already shown more flexibility in working within international norms towards the North and is likely entertaining back-channel discussions with the US to deescalate responses if a worst-case scenario occurred.
FAO GLOBAL’s ASSESSMENT
Based on Dr. Kim’s insight and continued tracking of this situation by FAO Global Analysts, the China appears to be distancing itself from the notion of being North Korea’s “older brother” and simultaneously bolstering its position as of a source of political calm in the region. This is a smart strategic move to balance good will in the event that North and South Korea came to be run under the same bureaucratic roof. Dr. Kim’s assessment on China’s red lines has merit. China is torn between wanting to keep an American ally off their doorstep, keep the North Korean situation under control, and create a friendly environment for what they see is their eventual reunification with Taiwan. Taking this opportunity to show themselves as a source of security and power in the region might just allow them to accomplish all three. But challenges abound. If North Korea decides it is done cooperating or if South Korea decides to maintain or increase its close and reliant ties to the United States, this plan unlikely to succeed. President Xi understands the precarious situation and is likely leveraging all resources it has to ensure a peaceful dissolution of tensions while not leaving China out of potentially significant political windfall if US talks are successful.
The potential conflict in North Korea, and subsequent rounds of negotiations to reduce tensions may result in China or the US leveraging current trade disputes to build additional support from both sides. As engagement moves forward and China becomes more involved, there will likely be more carrots on both sides given to smooth out the politics of negotiation. However, previous negotiations with North Korea have failed to stifle the development of nuclear weapons and unless there is significant appetite to work with the US, this will only lead to a temporary reduction in tensions.
Author Bio: Adriana Ray is an Asia policy analyst at FAO Global where she studies economic, security, and political issues in the region. Adriana is currently a graduate student at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service where she is pursuing a Masters in International Security. She is also an alum of Tsinghua University and Furman University.
