China Intelligence Briefs are made available for corporate account holders daily upon request.
SUMMARY
Washington, DC – As of October 8th, tensions between the United States and China escalated in the South China Sea. A ramp up in live fire naval drills, increased bomber flights, and a recent near collision between two naval vessels all contributed to the rise in tensions. During what the US military calls a ‘freedom of navigation operation’ (FONOP), a Chinese warship came within 45 yards of a US military vessel, an act considered aggressive by maritime standards. Observers called the maneuver ‘deliberate and calculated,’ although arguments have been made on both sides as to who provoked the situation. The US and China, along with other countries, have long disputed areas of the China sea and it is a historical geographical area of contention. China has laid claim to nearly the entire South China Sea citing a historical 9-dashed line which has caused contention over the last 40 years. Over the last decade, the South China Sea disputes have taken center stage due to controversial island building by the Chinese, clashes between locals, the Chinese coast guard, and naval vessels with regional neighbors, and the massive liquid natural gas reserves estimated on the sea floor. The South China Sea is a vital global resource with over $5 trillion in trade passing through every year and countries outside of the Asia Pacific have a vested interest in maintaining open sea lines of communication.
FAO GLOBAL ASSESSMENT
Considering one third of the world’s shipping by value travels through the South China Sea, any conflict in the region highly affects supply chains across many industries. Amidst the ongoing trade war between the US and China, this conflict will most likely heighten the tension between the two countries. Logistics and import/export companies should continue to assess contingency plans in the unlikely event that tensions rise beyond control. While the prospect of war is unlikely, shipping companies, non-Chinese fishing vessels, and other craft could potentially be caught up in unofficial retaliatory measures if tensions do not recede.
Related Links
- Business Insider – Days after multiple US bomber flights, Chinese warplanes did ‘live fire shooting drills’ in the South China Sea as tensions in the region boil.
- South China Morning Post – Beijing’s challenge to US warship in South China Sea ‘deliberate and calculate’, observers say
- South China Morning Post – US navy plans a major show of strength in South China Sea as warning to Beijing
Analyst Bio
Levi Rasmussen – International Business Development
Levi is an International Business Development Intern, focusing on internal strategy and development of FAO’s consulting services. Levi Rasmussen studies International Business, Finance, and Mandarin at the University of South Carolina. At FAO Global and his studies, Levi puts particular interest in facilitating the connection and integration of U.S. and Chinese firms through consulting work and building understanding between culture in dealing with organizations from the East and West. Levi will continue his studies in International Business at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University in Spring 2019.
Custom Intelligence Briefs are available for corporate account holders. We can provide daily or weekly updates on local market conditions, policy impacts, regional events, or industry changes that affect operations or strategy.
ABOUT CHINA INTELLIGENCE BRIEFS
The China Intelligence Briefs are the start of a global initiative to provide context and recommendations to businesses, non-profit organizations, and policy makers who are looking for specific examples of opportunity or disruption from global events. While analyzing the macro problems we often identify specific issues that affect our clients and readers. Identifying both opportunities & challenges allow us to better identify solutions at home and abroad for a wide range of disciplines. In addition to the China Intelligence Briefs, we maintain detailed notes from interviews, overseas trips & business missions, conferences, conventions, and private events. We provide access to these notes and other analytical products for clients and paid subscribers.
Headquartered in Washington, DC with Affiliates in China
Our Analysts, Associates, Consultants, and Interns all possess extensive experience in a foreign country and a foreign language capability. Our talent pool includes graduates from the elite Tsinghua University in Beijing, Georgetown University, George Washington University, UC Berkeley, and University of South Carolina. Being based in the Washington, DC Metro Area provides our team the advantage to build relationships with policy makers, foreign diplomats, business leaders, and non-profit groups providing a holistic view of global policy and the impacts to the business community. In addition to being based in the Washington, DC area, we retain the input and advice from affiliates located in China. This allows us to maintain on-ground awareness of changing business and political environment conditions and facilitate client projects between the two countries and the greater Asia continent.
All Intelligence Briefs are reviewed and guided by a Senior Analyst before publication.